Croatia's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup
Croatia are priced at around 35/1 to win the 2026 World Cup. finalists in 2018 and bronze medallists in 2022. They are in Group B and led by Luka Modrić.
Predicting World Cup winners is impossible. Predicting probabilities — based on squad strength, recent form, draw difficulty and tournament dynamics — is feasible. Croatia's odds of 35/1 imply a roughly 2.8% chance of lifting the trophy.
Squad assessment
Croatia are managed by Zlatko Dalić with Luka Modrić as the on-pitch focal point. As a UEFA side, Croatia bring top-tier European club experience and tactical depth.
Path to the final
- Group stage: Win Group B or finish second to dodge the toughest Round of 32 opponents.
- Round of 32: A new round in 2026 — adds an extra knockout game versus the previous format.
- Round of 16: Where dark horses are typically exposed by elite teams.
- Quarter-finals onward: Tournament experience and depth become decisive.
Risks
The main risks for Croatia are tactical predictability, set-piece vulnerability, and the new Round of 32 adding an extra knockout fixture before the latter stages. finalists in 2018 and bronze medallists in 2022.
Best case
The best case for Croatia would involve a smooth group exit and one or two cup-tie performances in the early knockouts.