Italy's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup
Italy are priced at around 22/1 to win the 2026 World Cup. returning to the World Cup after missing the last two editions. They are in Group L and led by Federico Chiesa.
Predicting World Cup winners is impossible. Predicting probabilities — based on squad strength, recent form, draw difficulty and tournament dynamics — is feasible. Italy's odds of 22/1 imply a roughly 4.3% chance of lifting the trophy.
Squad assessment
Italy are managed by Luciano Spalletti with Federico Chiesa as the on-pitch focal point. As a UEFA side, Italy bring top-tier European club experience and tactical depth.
Path to the final
- Group stage: Win Group L or finish second to dodge the toughest Round of 32 opponents.
- Round of 32: A new round in 2026 — adds an extra knockout game versus the previous format.
- Round of 16: Where dark horses are typically exposed by elite teams.
- Quarter-finals onward: Tournament experience and depth become decisive.
Risks
The main risks for Italy are tactical predictability, set-piece vulnerability, and the new Round of 32 adding an extra knockout fixture before the latter stages. returning to the World Cup after missing the last two editions.
Best case
The best case for Italy would involve an opportunistic group stage, a favourable knockout draw, and a single signature win that lifts belief.