Paraguay's chances of winning the 2026 World Cup
Paraguay are priced at around 200/1 to win the 2026 World Cup. qualifying for their first World Cup since 2010. They are in Group F and led by Miguel Almirón.
Predicting World Cup winners is impossible. Predicting probabilities — based on squad strength, recent form, draw difficulty and tournament dynamics — is feasible. Paraguay's odds of 200/1 imply a roughly 0.5% chance of lifting the trophy.
Squad assessment
Paraguay are managed by Gustavo Alfaro with Miguel Almirón as the on-pitch focal point. As a CONMEBOL side, Paraguay bring South American flair, technical quality and tournament pedigree.
Path to the final
- Group stage: Win Group F or finish second to dodge the toughest Round of 32 opponents.
- Round of 32: A new round in 2026 — adds an extra knockout game versus the previous format.
- Round of 16: Where dark horses are typically exposed by elite teams.
- Quarter-finals onward: Tournament experience and depth become decisive.
Risks
The main risks for Paraguay are a small margin of error, dependence on a single talisman, and the heat of North American venues. qualifying for their first World Cup since 2010.
Best case
The best case for Paraguay would involve a smooth group exit and one or two cup-tie performances in the early knockouts.